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Trumps Tarrif War reduces income

Donald Trump’s tariff rates, ranging from 10 to 41 percent on goods from more than 90 countries, took effect after midnight on Thursday.

His move to reignite his trade war, particularly against Canada, Mexico, and China, will result in a 2.7% reduction in income for the bottom 20% of earners, while the top 1% will lose 0.6%.

The Yale Budget Lab estimates that the overall price level resulting from all tariffs enacted in 2025 will lead to an average household income loss of $2,400 in 2025 dollars. Other analyses project even higher costs, with some estimating a $3,800 annual loss per household from consumer price increases tied to all 2025 tariffs.

While US tariff revenues have risen significantly, they still constitute a small portion of the federal budget deficit. The projected fiscal year 2025 federal budget deficit is $1.9 trillion. The increased tariff revenue, even with recent increases, amounts to roughly 7% of that figure. 

Such a minor increase in revenue puts to rest Trump‘s idea of entirely replacing the federal income tax with new tariffs.

To replace the roughly $2 trillion of revenue raised by the individual income tax with tariffs would require astronomically high tariff rates.

 Raising tariff rates to astronomically high levels would significantly depress imports, making it impossible to generate enough revenue to offset the costs of Trump’s tariff rates fully.

Watch Out! The GOP Is Coming After Your Money!

Like thieves in the night, the Republicans have been hiding their intentions in the shadows lest anyone find out what they are actually up to. And just like those thieves, they won’t break into your house through the front. Instead, they’ll go around to the back door. It’s not so obvious that way.

This week, a prominent member of the administration, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, proudly revealed their subtle plot. On Wednesday, he stated that the so-called “Trump accounts” Republicans created for children in their tax and spending bill are “a back door for privatizing Social Security.”(1) Like the thieves, the Republicans can’t be up front about their plans, they have to sneak through a “back door.”

The Republicans ultimate goal, the destruction of Social Security (along with Medicare and Medicaid), has always been somewhat out in the open. We’ve all known it, but until Bessent’s statement, it was something that most Republicans would vigorously deny.

In fact, Republicans have stated over and over again that they were not planning to touch Social Security. Unfortunately, they said the same things about Medicare and Medicaid, and we have all seen what happened to those programs when they took power.

The GOP would object and say, “We’re not planning to destroy Social Security; we just want to ‘privatize’ it.” But what would that mean? It means that your money will be taken from the safe and secure government accounts and distributed to private investment firms and banks — you know those kinds of businesses in which the C-suite executives are paid tens if not hundreds of millions of dollars. Where do you think that money comes from?

And, while they’re at it, the Republicans also plan to eliminate all fiscal regulations on these firms such as fiduciary requirements. That will allow all manner of investor fraud to occur, not to mention abuse and waste.

The argument they make is that private firms can earn higher returns on investment than the government. This may be true in some cases, but it is also true that investment firms and banks have, at times, lost money through overly risky opportunities and sheer incompetence. Some of these firms have even gone bankrupt losing all of their clients’ capital (after paying out inordinate sums to their executives in salary and bonus packages). Remember the financial crisis of 2008? It included the collapses of Lehmann Brothers and Bear Stearns as well as the government bailouts (using taxpayer dollars) of JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and Morgan Stanley because they were “too big to fail.” Again, your money became their money without them having to go through the trouble of breaking the law.

Of course, once your funds are in the hands of these greedy people, you can expect to be charged all manner of “fees” in order to help pay for the exorbitant salaries and bonuses. There will be “maintenance fees,” “investment fees,” “administrative fees,” and so on. I anticipate that, under this scenario, the “fees” will steadily grow no matter what your return on investment is. Rather than receiving an annual letter from the Social Security Administration telling you about next year’s increase in your payments, you’re likely to get a bill from your investment banker for next year’s inflated fees.

But Social Security is going broke the Republicans argue. Yet they won’t take common-sense steps to save it like removing the arbitrary cap on Social Security taxes. It’s only there to keep the wealthy from having to pay more. Rather than save the program, the GOP would prefer to let it self-destruct even if it means that millions of Americans, some of whom are Republicans, will lose their only source of income.

Why are Republicans so adamant about privatizing Social Security? Because they see this HUGE pot of money in the government’s coffers that they and their billionaire backers can’t get their hands on. They lust after that money to the point of obsession. They aren’t really concerned about whose money it is, as long as they can get it somehow: like thieves in the night.

(1) https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/30/business/bessent-trump-social-security.html

Nevadans Losing Food Stamps

THIS IS A PRESS RELEASE FROM THE NEVADA DEMOCRATIC PARTY
Wednesday, Jul. 30, 2025
The Nevada Independent: 1 in 6 Nevadans Get Food Stamps. Many May Lose Benefits Under Trump’s ‘Big Beautiful Bill.’

“In a state with increasing food insecurity, more than 130,000 food stamp recipients will have their eligibility reevaluated”
Last week, reporting from the Nevada Independent showed how Trump and Republicans’ “Big Beautiful Bill” will result in hundreds of thousands of families in Nevada either losing SNAP food benefits or seeing cuts to them. According to the article, Republican cuts to the program, made in an effort to offset tax cuts that are “primarily for the highest earners”, will mean “more Nevadans are going hungry”. 

One in six Nevadans, roughly 500,000 people, rely on the SNAP program and an estimated “265,000 families could lose all or some of their benefits, with 85,000 families facing at least $25 in monthly benefit losses”. According to the chief operations and strategy officer for Three Square, Nevada’s largest food bank, this will result in “kids having fewer meals, seniors literally having to skip dinner and ration more than they already do and then families that are working so many jobs and can barely make ends meet already.” 

Further, the article details how the Republicans’ “Big Beautiful Bill” will downshift tens of millions of dollars in additional costs to Nevada’s state budget. Under the bill, the state will have to cover between $50 million and $150 million of SNAP benefits costs annually, in addition to tens of millions of dollars more to cover the program’s administrative costs. According to one expert, that “will make it harder for the state to run the program effectively, which could result in higher error rates that will force Nevada to cover some of the benefit costs.”

Despite the immense harm the bill will do to Nevadans, Joe Lombardo has on multiple occasions praised the bill, saying both that Nevadans should be “excited” by it and thanking Speaker Mike Johnson for coming to Nevada to try to sell the bill. 

Read more below:

The Nevada Independent: 1 in 6 Nevadans get food stamps. Many may lose benefits under Trump’s ‘big beautiful bill.’
 The “One Big Beautiful Bill” signed by President Donald Trump earlier this month is likely to upend the food assistance program that serves 1 in 6 Nevadans, with expanded work requirements threatening thousands of recipients’ eligibility and the state expected to shoulder more of the program’s administrative costs.

The legislation cuts nationwide food stamp funding by about $186 billion through 2034, or a fifth of the total federal dollars allocated to the program. Its inclusion is an effort to offset some of the costs of extending tax cuts that will result in lower taxes across all income brackets, but primarily for the highest earners.

Food stamps, officially referred to as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), provide cash assistance for low-income individuals to buy food at certain retailers. Although the full impact of the cuts have yet to be fully assessed by the state, early indications are that the bill will result in hundreds of thousands of Nevada families losing or seeing a reduction in their benefits.

Changes made in the bill will have far-ranging results: The eligibility of more than 130,000 Nevadans could be in doubt because of changes to work requirements, benefit amounts are less likely to increase over time, and the state will have to cover more administrative costs, which researchers say will result in less attention directed toward rooting out errors in the program.

About 500,000 Nevadans participate in the program, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The average Nevada household on SNAP received $166 in monthly benefits, amounting to about $6 daily and $2,000 annually, according to an analysis from the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

The Urban Institute, an economic think tank, estimated that 265,000 families in Nevada could lose all or some of their benefits, with 85,000 families facing at least $25 in monthly benefit losses.

The bill has resulted in significant angst from officials focused on eliminating hunger in the Silver State — and it’s come at potentially the worst possible time. Inflation remains stubbornly high, the Trump administration has already cut certain food programs, food banks across the state have reported increasing demand in recent months and a surge in federal pandemic aid that expanded SNAP and other food programs is drying up.

All of it means more Nevadans are going hungry.
 Segler from Three Square added that “this is taking [recipients’] livelihood away.” “The things I think about are kids having fewer meals, seniors literally having to skip dinner and ration more than they already do and then families that are working so many jobs and can barely make ends meet already,” she said.

The federal government has always fully funded SNAP benefits, leaving implementation to the states. But under the new law, states could have to shoulder some of the food costs.

States with a payment error rate above 6 percent — meaning there was either underpayment or overpayment on at least 6 percent of benefit payouts — would be required to cover between 5 percent and 15 percent of total benefit costs starting in 2028. In fiscal year 2024, Nevadans received about $1 billion in benefits, so Nevada would need to pay between $50 million and $150 million if the error rate is too high.

Still, no matter the error rates, Nevada and other states will have to foot more of the administrative costs.

Previously, the federal government reimbursed half of the dollars tied to food stamp administration, but beginning in fiscal year 2027, states will have to cover 75 percent of the costs.

In fiscal year 2025, the projected administrative cost to the state was about $83 million, which the state will pay half of, according to Muessle, the state spokesperson, but the state’s payment would have increased by about $20 million under the new model. Muessle said that the administrative cost for fiscal year 2026 is expected to be about $100 million.

Plata-Nino added that this will make it harder for the state to run the program effectively, which could result in higher error rates that will force Nevada to cover some of the benefit costs.

McDonough, the UNLV economist, added that the implications of the bill go beyond “whether people have empty stomachs.” “It’s really about potential rising health care costs stemming from these externalities, students struggling in school, lost productivity in the workplace, and then just putting sort of these community partnership programs, food banks under real financial strain,” he said.

Aaron Ford For Governor

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Tuesday, Jul. 29, 2025
Attorney General Aaron Ford Launches Campaign for Governor, Secures Key Endorsements
Politico: One of America’s most at-risk GOP governors gets a Democratic challenger
Yesterday, after receiving the endorsements of Nevada’s entire Democratic Congressional Delegation, Attorney General Aaron Ford launched his campaign for Governor to a crowd of more than 250 people alongside Congresswoman Dina Titus, Congressman Steven Horsford, Assemblywoman Cecelia González, and labor leaders. Ford started his morning with a prayer breakfast at his home church followed by a small business stop at Gritz Cafe. He ended his day in rural Nye County talking with Pahrump voters.

See more below:
WATCH ON KTNV HERE:
WATCH ON KSNV HERE:
WATCH ON KVVU HERE:

Nevada Independent: Aaron Ford, Nevada’s Democratic attorney general, officially jumps into governor’s raceFord has previously described his role as attorney general as focused on justice in all its forms — environmental, racial, housing, social — and on Monday, he touted suing both the Trump and Biden administrations, saying if someone hurts Nevada families, he’s “not backing down.”However, Geoff Garin, the president of Hart Research, who has conducted extensive polling for Democrats, told The Nevada Independent in a July interview that the polling reveals vulnerabilities and “there’s no real depth” to Lombardo’s support.During the 2023 legislative session, Ford’s office proposed laws addressing organized retail crime, making it easier for law enforcement to respond to domestic violence incidents and increasing penalties for fentanyl possession.In the 2025 legislative session, Ford spearheaded legislation banning price manipulation of essential goods and services. Lombardo vetoed it.
New York Times: Nevada Democrats Spot an Opportunity in a Vulnerable G.O.P. GovernorAfter months of anticipation, the 2026 race for Nevada governor came into focus on Monday, with the favorite for the Democratic nomination making his campaign official as he seeks to take down the Republican incumbent.The flurry of activity is all part of a growing effort among Democrats to take down one of the most vulnerable Republican incumbents: Gov. Joe Lombardo, who is running for re-election in a swing state that has not hesitated to oust its sitting officeholders in recent years.Democrats’ best shot is likely to be Aaron Ford, the state attorney general who announced his entrance into the Democratic primary on Monday after signaling his intention to run for months. Mr. Ford is widely viewed as the favorite to win the nomination, though he will have company in the primary next June.Mr. Ford pointed to Mr. Trump’s sweeping domestic policy bill, which could cause more than 100,000 people in Nevada to lose Medicaid coverage, and Mr. Lombardo’s veto of bills like one that would have provided meals to students.
Politico: One of America’s most at-risk GOP governors gets a Democratic challengerOnce a recipient of food stamps and Medicaid benefits, Ford now plans to run against Republicans’ cuts to those same programs, which he says will deeply impact Nevadans.“It was Medicaid that enabled my son and me to have the health care we needed in order to be able to survive. It was food stamps that kept us fed,” Ford said in an interview, explaining that he and his son used these programs for a year and a half when he was a single father attending college. “It hits me … particularly hard to know that people are about to be hit in those areas.”Medicaid has become a major campaign point for Democrats across the country, and Ford is already framing his race through that lens. In a conversation with POLITICO the week before announcing his campaign, Ford talked about the negative effects the megabill will have on Nevadans and criticized Lombardo’s response to the legislation — accusing him of being silent on cuts that would harm Nevadans.
Las Vegas Review Journal: AG Ford launches bid for Nevada governor“If you’re tired of the status quo, and you’re tired of people who won’t stand up for you, you want someone who’s going to fight for a Nevada that works for everyone, join us,” Ford said to a crowd of over 250 at the East Las Vegas Community Center.At his campaign launch, Nevada Democratic Reps. Steven Horsford and Dina Titus introduced Ford and commended his work as attorney general, such as clearing a backlog of rape kits, delivering settlements for Nevada and suing the Trump administration over what Titus described as an “executive overreach.”Ford went to college and in his junior year became a father, then a single father, needing Medicaid and food stamps to care for his son, he said. He later met his wife, Berna Rhodes-Ford, graduated from college, earned two master’s degrees and his law degree and became a public school math teacher.Ford said it is time to “stop sliding backwards” and to start “moving forward” — a slogan highlighted in his campaign video, with emphasis on the first and last two letters of ‘forward’. If elected, he promised to bring down prescription drug prices, stop corporations from buying up homes, guarantee breakfast and lunch for public school students and fund summer school.
The Hill: Nevada attorney general launches bid to unseat Lombardo“I’m running for Governor because Nevadans need a fighter in their corner,” Ford said in a statement released Monday. “I will work to lower the crushing cost of housing and prescription drugs, strengthen our public schools, and ensure every community in Nevada is safe.”Ford touted his background as a former math teacher who also served as majority leader of the state Senate. He argued that under the GOP governor, “Nevadans are suffering in an economy that is rigged against those trying their hardest to stay afloat” and hit him over issues such as the state’s high unemployment rate and homelessness.The Silver State, along with Georgia, are seen as Democrats’ best opportunities to flip governors’ mansions next year. The nonpartisan election analyst Cook Political Report rates the governor’s seat in Nevada and Georgia both as toss-ups.

Nevada Current: Ford promises ‘you matter’ state government if elected to top spot“I know what it’s like to feel like you’re pushing a rock up a hill in the fight for a better life. And families all across Nevada are feeling it, too,” he said. “It feels like the deck is stacked against them. And you know what? It is. I’m fighting for the kind of government that sees people like I was and says, ‘you matter.’”Ford noted that Lombardo, when asked by a reporter about the impact of Trump’s tariffs, said Nevadans “‘may have to feel a little pain.’ Can you believe that our governor wants families to feel pain while he caters to the powerful? Well, thanks to Joe Lombardo and Donald Trump, there’s plenty of pain to go around.”Ford criticized Lombardo for enlisting a Republican lawmaker to kill legislation that would have limited home buying by out-of-state corporations, whose purchases jack up the prices in Nevada neighborhoods. Under Lombardo’s watch, he added, Nevada has had the highest unemployment rate in the nation while job growth lags other states.  NBC News has labeled Lombardo as the most vulnerable Republican governor seeking reelection next year. The governor’s support for Trump’s deportation policies could erode his support among Latino voters, an essential voting bloc in the state.
NBC: Nevada’s Democratic attorney general launches campaign for governorNevada state Attorney General Aaron Ford announced a run for governor today, challenging Republican incumbent Joe Lombardo — seen as the most vulnerable Republican governor up for re-election next year.“The bottom line is, I think the Nevadans deserve a governor who’s going to solve problems, not one who blocks progress,” Ford said in an interview with NBC News.“When I’m governor, I’ll invest in strong public schools and creating good paying jobs, including in the clean energy and tech sectors, and I’ll work to ensure that every family can afford to live and to thrive here,  which is the opposite what we see Joe Lombardo doing,” Ford said.Nevada Democrats have already sought to tie Lombardo to the law, though the Republican has walked a fine line between offering praise for certain aspects of the megabill while pushing back against others.
Washington Post: The one state that could determine House control next yearAaron Ford, Nevada’s Democratic attorney general, formally announced his campaign for governor today, setting up his expected, but closely watched, 2026 campaign.“Nevadans have a history of holding their elected officials accountable, as they did when Senator Jacky Rosen defeated Dean Heller. Voters are looking for a leader who understands their challenges, has lived through them, and is ready to fight for real results,” Ford told us in a statement, before referring to his likely opponent, Nevada Gov. Joe Lombardo as “the most vulnerable Republican governor up for reelection next year.”Ford has a unique personal story — growing up in poverty, surviving on many of the same programs cut in Trump’s recently signed mega-bill and eventually earning five degrees and rising to become the top law enforcement official in his state.
Las Vegas Sun: Democrats rally around Ford’s bid to become Nevada governorMonday’s event offered a better idea of Ford’s line of attack against current Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo: tying the former sheriff to President Donald Trump’s policies such as the One Big Beautiful Bill and a growing list of executive orders reshaping the federal government.He connected those policies to his upbringing, telling the story of once eating stale candy bars his father found next to a dumpster for dinner. It was food stamps that prevented him from going hungry and Medicaid that ensured he could see a doctor, Ford said.Despite the attacks on Lombardo and Trump, Ford emphasized his commitment to bipartisanship. The attorney general noted that he had also sued President Joe Biden’s administration while it was in office.“Finally, a candidate for governor in Nevada who speaks our language, understands our struggles, and will fight for our families,” Doñate wrote in Spanish.
###

Da Plane! Da Plane!

I bet you forgot about that Qatar plane that was gifted (?) to Donald Trump to use as his new Air Force One, that he will take personal possession of after leaving office through his presidential library. Lots of other stories have been taking up our space, but this one is now back in the news.

New reporting shows what that “free” jet will cost the taxpayer to retrofit.

The New York Times (David Sanger) reported that there has been a mysterious, $934 million transfer of funds from a Pentagon project that is designated to modernize our nation’s ground-based nuclear missiles. This price tag is in addition to the $4 billion already being spent for Boeing to deliver new Air Force One planes, but Trump doesn’t want to wait for those new planes. The Qatar jet will become his — not the new Boeing jets.

The gold-adored plane will need to be retrofitted with communications and safety systems. Some experts believe the price tag will exceed $1 billion.

This, of course, is a bigger priority of the Trump Administration than feeding starving children around the world, providing Meals on Wheels to elderly residents, medical care for the poor that would stop infectious diseases from spreading, food stamps for single mothers with children, Head Start to give poor children basic skills before starting school, and adequate Medicaid funds to facilitate end-of-life care for those who cannot afford to pay for a nursing home. This is the United States of America now.

Here is a YouTube video from The Bulwark which further details this story. It is about seven minutes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GbnzkDSfMsY&t=315s

Horsford on GOP’s Hearing in Las Vegas: Selling Lies Nevadans Won’t Buy

NORTH LAS VEGAS – Congressman Steven Horsford [on Friday] organized and led public opposition to a Republican field hearing of the House Ways and Means Committee in his Las Vegas Congressional District.

Horsford led a joint press conference, delivered remarks at the GOP field hearing, and coordinated real-time counterprogramming to elevate local voices during the hearing.

The Republican field hearing, which was billed as an event to “highlight the One, Big, Beautiful Bill’s benefits for American families and workers,” came as report after report and article after article highlight the ways Nevadans will actually be harmed by the new law. Three weeks after President Trump signed it into effect, public sentiment remains staunchly against it. The field hearing was further hamstrung by news this morning of focus groups showing Nevada swing voters turning against President Trump.

“Congressional Republicans came to Las Vegas this week to sell a lie that my constituents are way too savvy to buy,” Rep. Horsford said. “Their tax law strips healthcare from more than 110,000 Nevadans, eliminates 8,300 clean energy and manufacturing jobs from our state, and increases our average energy costs by $500 per year. Any money saved from taxes will be squandered on Trump’s tariffs and the economic turmoil they continue to cause. We should be rewarding work over wealth, and creating the economic opportunities for families to thrive – not just survive.”

More information about how the Republican Tax Law impacts Nevada is available here.

Video of Rep. Horsford’s press conference is available here.

At-risk Rural Hospitals in Nevada

In June, several Democratic U.S. Senators sent a letter (1) to President Trump, Speaker Johnson, and Majority Leader Thune outlining the consequences of the soon-to-be-passed reconciliation bill (the Big Ugly Bill). The letter warns that “these cuts will have devastating consequences for health outcomes and costs, jobs, and the economic success of rural communities.”

Attached to the letter is “information provided by the Cecil G. Sheps Center for Health Services Research at the University of North Carolina (that) illustrates what your party’s reconciliation bill will mean for the health of Americans living in rural communities.”

The attached study identified the at-risk rural hospitals by state. The study looked at how “(s)ubstantial cuts to Medicaid or Medicare payments could increase the number of unprofitable rural hospitals and elevate their risk of financial distress. In response, hospitals may be forced to reduce service lines, convert to a different type of health care facility, or close altogether.”

The study named hospitals that meet one or both of two financial criteria: (1) the hospital is in the top 10% (ten percent) Medicaid payer mix of rural hospitals across the country, (2) the hospital has experienced three consecutive years of negative total margin. This means these rural hospitals face greater risk of being forced to stop providing some services, converting, or closing.

In Nevada, two hospitals were specifically identified as “at-risk” under these criteria. These were

1. Battle Mountain General Hospital in Battle Mountain and

2. Humboldt General Hospital in Winnemucca.

While neither of these is in our area (they are both in Congressional District 2), the study does illustrate the situation that rural hospitals face. Should one or both of these institutions be forced to close, the population using their services would then have to find (and travel to) other hospitals that will provide care to them. This will, in turn, increase the economic pressures on the other hospitals and possibly putting them at risk as well. There could be a snowball effect throughout the state.

Recently, the Mesa Valleys Progress published a story (2) about Mesa View Hospital titled “Hospital launches fundraising for critical expansion.”

The article begins “Hospitals can benefit all of us in our most vulnerable time of need. They must focus on providing quality health care, irrespective of costs and patients’ ability to pay; they serve all. However, the reality is hospitals must manage organizational costs, pay their bills and provide levels of service that match their financial position. Oftentimes, the hospital’s range of services fall short of what all local residents need, so patients are forced to travel elsewhere for care. This is the story of Mesa View, a critical access hospital and one of the 14 (fourteen) rural hospitals in Nevada.”

It goes on to describe how Mesa View is planning to expand in the future to meet the growing needs of our communities. The article explains that “(i)n order to fund the expansion, Mesa View Hospital has established a Friends of Mesa View Fund. The fund is a registered 501(c)(3) and is held at the Wyoming Community Foundation. Donations to the fund are tax deductible and directly support expanding specialized health care services, beginning with cardiology. Too many residents are traveling to St. George or Las Vegas for health care services currently unavailable at Mesa View, a trend the hospital is committed to reversing.”

It seems that, even in these uncertain times, Mesa View Hospital is committing to ensuring good health care in northeast Clark County. Having been a patient myself at Mesa View, both in the ER and the regular hospital, I can agree with the article’s assertion that “the real anchor level of services is Mesa View’s emergency room, the gold standard in the community.” Let us hope that the at-risk rural hospitals situation doesn’t negatively affect this fine facility.

(1) https://www.markey.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/letter_on_rural_hospitals.pdf

(2) https://mvprogress.com/2025/07/15/hospital-launches-fundraising-for-critical-expansion/

One Big Ugly Bill Act Affects the Deficit and Social Security

From the Las Vegas Review Journal 

Trump has called the bill “the biggest tax cut in the history of our country … bigger than any Ronald Reagan tax cut”. The centrepiece of the bill will extend Trump’s 2017 cuts, which include a reduction in the marginal rate of income tax. These were the signature achievements of Trump’s first term and were due to expire at the end of the year. Retaining them will cost about $4.5 trillion.

They also include Trump’s promise from the election campaign to abolish taxes on tips and overtime. The abolition is due to last until 2028. According to an analysis by the nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation, tax-free tips would reduce federal revenue by $31 billion between the 2026 and 2029 fiscal years, while tax-free overtime would reduce federal revenue by $90 billion during the same period. 

Federal Taxes on Social Security

A portion of the federal taxes that you pay on your Social Security goes back into the trust funds of Social Security and Medicare Hospital Insurance. This policy was enacted with the 1983 Amendments to the Social Security Act as a way to strengthen the financial solvency of social security.

The “enhanced deduction” for taxpayers 65 and older eliminates federal income taxes for most beneficiaries.” It is implied that two provisions of the budget bill reduce taxes for seniors, when in fact there’s only one. The deduction applies to all income, not just Social Security. Like so much else in the budget bill, the tax break as it might apply to Social Security benefits goes mostly to wealthier taxpayers. That’s because of the way Social Security benefits are taxed.

Moreover, as labor economist Teresa Ghilarducci observed at Forbes, “The bill doesn’t do anything directly to Social Security.” A provision that would have specifically exempted Social Security benefits from taxes was dropped from the bill when it came under consideration by the Senate.

The claim that beneficiaries will “no longer pay federal income taxes on their benefits” is also inaccurate: The enhanced deduction — $6,000 for single filers, $12,000 for couples — will expire in 2028, unless it’s extended by Congress. It’s also limited by income: The full deduction is available only to singles up to $75,000 in income, $150,000 for couples. The deduction phases out above those levels, zeroing out for singles with $175,000 in income or higher, $250,000 for couples.

The reduction of taxes on benefits will weaken, not protect, Social Security (and Medicare too). The reason is that about 60% of the revenues generated by those taxes is credited to the Social Security trust funds. The rest goes to Medicare.

In 2025, that sum is expected to come to about $60 billion for Social Security, or more than 4% of the program’s overall income, and $40.7 billion for Medicare, or nearly 9% of the funding for Medicare Part A, which covers hospital services. The budget bill has no provision for replacing that money.

Subtitle C–Increase in Debt Limit (HR 1 Sect C of The Big Ugly Bill)

SEC. 72001. MODIFICATION OF LIMITATION ON THE PUBLIC DEBT.

The limitation under section 3101(b) of title 31, United States 

Code, as most recently increased by section 401(b) of Public Law 118-5

(31 U.S.C. 3101 note), is increased by $5,000,000,000,000.

What it Means per Gemini (AI)

1. Affect on the Deficit:

  • Increased Deficits: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates that HR1, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” will increase deficits by approximately $2.8 trillion over the 2025-2034 period, and potentially up to $3.4 trillion or more when factoring in additional debt service costs and various provisions. This is largely driven by a reduction in revenues ($3.7 trillion) despite some reductions in outlays ($1.3 trillion) over the same period.
  • New Spending and Tax Cuts: The bill includes various tax cuts and new spending initiatives. While it also incorporates some offsets, the net effect is a significant increase in the primary deficit.
  • Debt Service Costs: A substantial portion of the increased deficit will come from higher debt-service costs, estimated to be hundreds of billions of dollars over the next decade, as the government needs to borrow more and potentially at higher interest rates.

2. Affect on the National Debt:

  • Higher National Debt: The $5 trillion increase in the debt limit directly allows the federal government to borrow this additional amount. This means the national debt will increase by at least the amount of the increased deficits, pushing it further upward.
  • Debt-to-GDP Ratio: The CBO projects that enacting HR1 would increase debt held by the public at the end of 2034 to 123.8% or 124% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), up from their January 2025 baseline projection of 117.1% of GDP. This indicates a growing burden of debt relative to the size of the economy.
  • No New Spending Authority (but enables existing obligations): It’s crucial to understand that raising the debt limit doesn’t authorize new spending. Instead, it allows the government to pay for existing legal obligations that Congresses and presidents have already made. However, HR1 itself contains significant new spending and tax cut provisions that will lead to higher borrowing.

In summary:

The $5 trillion increase in the debt limit within HR1, signed on July 4, 2025, has a clear and substantial impact:

  • It will significantly increase the federal deficit over the next decade due to a combination of tax cuts and new spending.
  • This will directly lead to a higher national debt, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of GDP.

Critics argue that this bill represents a “striking display of fiscal hypocrisy” as it increases the debt ceiling while simultaneously creating new deficits, potentially delaying a much-needed debate over unsustainable government spending. Supporters, however, may view it as necessary to avoid a potentially catastrophic default and to implement desired policy changes.

Congress.gov

www.congress.gov

Tax Provisions in H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act: House-Passed Version | Congress.gov

No Tax on Tips. Section 110101 of the bill. New Section 224 of the IRC. This provision would create a new income tax deduction for qualified tip income

PwC

www.pwc.com

President Trump signs H.R. 1, the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” – PwC

The bill also includes a provision to increase the federal government’s current $36.1 trillion statutory debt limit by $5 trillion. The Joint Committee on …

U.S. Department of the Treasury (.gov)

home.treasury.gov

Debt Limit | U.S. Department of the Treasury

The debt limit is the total amount of money that the United States government is authorized to borrow to meet its existing legal obligations, including Social …

AInvest

www.ainvest.com

H.R. 1 Passes: A Mixed Bag for Federal Employees and the Economy – AInvest

This increase in public debt could lead to higher borrowing costs for the government and potentially for private sector entities as well, as investors demand …

Congressional Budget Office (.gov)

www.cbo.gov

Effects on Deficits and the Debt of Enacting H.R. 1 and of Making Certain Tax Policies in H.R. 1 Permanent | Congressional Budget Office

CBO estimates that enacting H.R. 1 and making 16 tax provisions within H.R. 1 permanent would raise debt-service costs by $687 billion over the 2025–2034 …

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Impacts of the Big Ugly Bill on Medicaid

Many analyses have been published to parse the effects of the Big Ugly Bill on Medicaid. A number of them differ due to the fact that they are all projections and are based on various assumptions. Also because they were prepared at different times and the text in HR1 kept changing to the very end. In this blog, we have attempted to assemble the most recent and authoritative sources.

BACKGROUND OF MEDICAID

What is Medicaid and who are the recipients? (1)

State & Federal taxpayer-funded health insurance

Covers a core set of benefits for recipients at no cost

Covers about 1 in 4 Nevadans; nearly half are children

Payer of last resort, making up about a quarter of Nevada’s insurance market

Largest source of federal funds for health care in the State (60/40)

800,000 Average number of people in Nevada covered

22% growth pre-COVID

54% Percentage of births covered by Nevada Medicaid; 1 in 2 births

75% Recipients served by Medicaid Managed Care Plans

40% Recipients who are children or youth (0-18)

11% Dually eligible for Medicare & Medicaid (85,897 individuals)

78% Recipients who live in Clark County

66% Percentage of adults enrolled in Medicaid who are employed

71% Nevadans enrolled in Medicaid who are people of color

57% Number of nursing facility residents covered by Medicaid

(1) Sources – State Legislature

https://www.leg.state.nv.us/Session/83rd2025/Exhibits/Assembly/HHS/AHHS70C.pdf

https://dhcfp.nv.gov/uploadedFiles/dhcfpnvgov/content/LegislativeSessions/2026-2027%20Budget%20Overview%20DHCFP_02272025.pdf

HR1 EFFECTS ON INDIVIDUALS

How many people will lose Medicaid coverage nationally? In Nevada? In Congressional District 4? (2) and (3)

Nationally

8,689,000

That translates into one in 10 people currently enrolled in the Medicaid program nationwide losing their coverage.

Nevada

116,000

Out of 787,384 statewide which is approximately15.6%

Clark County alone currently has 623,739 Medicaid recipients

Congressional District 4

30,000

Also about 15.6% (of approximately 192,000 recipients, calculated)

(2) Source – Nevada Office of Analytics

https://app.powerbigov.us/view?r=eyJrIjoiZThjMWU5Y2YtZDE4NC00MDM2LWJkMDctZTgzYjliZGIyMjE3IiwidCI6ImU0YTM0MGU2LWI4OWUtNGU2OC04ZWFhLTE1NDRkMjcwMzk4MCJ9

(3) Source – Manatt Health


https://shvs.org/resource/senate-passed-h-r-1-updated-estimates-on-impact-to-state-medicaid-coverage-and-expenditures-hospital-expenditures-including-impacts-by-congressional-district/


However, there are other estimates that differ such as this one cited in the Washington Post on July 10 although the CBO letter dates from a month before the signing of the bill:

“Trump displays magical thinking. How can he enact the biggest spending cut in history and no one feel it? And, contrary to his claim that ‘Medicaid is left alone,’ the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated that new work requirements and other changes in the health care program for the poor will cause 7.8 million people to lose their coverage. CBO added that changes in the Affordable Care Act and a cutoff of aid to undocumented immigrants will mean a total of 11.8 million people will lose their health coverage under the law.” (4)

(4) Sources

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2025/07/10/trump-democrats-tax-spending-bill-fact-checker

https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-06/Wyden-Pallone-Neal_Letter_6-4-25.pdf

HR1 EFFECTS ON FINANCING

How much money is being taken away from Medicaid nationally? In Nevada? In CD4? (3)

Nationally

-$1,248,773,000,000 ($1.2 trillion)

Nevada

-$12,328,000 ($12.3 million)

CD4

The cited analysis does not include the specific amounts of the overall financing effects by Congressional District. However a prorated calculation based the changes in the number of recipients implies a reduction of about $3 million.

HR1 IMPACTS ON HOSPITALS

What are the impacts on hospitals’ Medicaid funding nationally? In Nevada? In CD4? (3)

These impacts will affect many of the rural hospitals like Mesa View.

Nationally

-$664,954,000 ($665 million)

Nevada

-$6,881,000 ($6.9 million)

CD4

-$2,874,000 ($2.9 million)

FURTHER INFORMATION

There is also a very detailed breakdown of the Medicaid cuts in this article from the NY Times:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/30/upshot/senate-republican-megabill.html

The Big Ugly Bill

Last week, Congress betrayed the American people by passing one of the worst pieces of legislation in history which hurts the most vulnerable to the benefit of the wealthiest.

It was signed into law on July 4 — an ironic date chosen to send a message.

We will be covering details and how the various provisions will affect you, your friends, family and neighbors. Follow us.

Read about The Big Ugly Bill. Tell everyone you know how this bill is affecting them. This is how we fight back — with facts. This is how we change minds — one at a time. This is how we encourage civic engagement like voting. This is how we will win the next election.

Here is an 8 minute description by Steve Schmidt.