It’s difficult to predict the impacts of the latest raises in tariffs since economic projections are often little more than guesses. And there are those who, for political reasons, will simply make up numbers and throw them around as if they were facts. But there are legitimate organizations that use scientific approaches to make projections such as the Yale University Budget Lab.
This organization recently published a document entitled “Where We Stand: The Fiscal, Economic, and Distributional Effects of All U.S. Tariffs Enacted in 2025 Through April 2” (https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/where-we-stand-fiscal-economic-and-distributional-effects-all-us-tariffs-enacted-2025-through-april). The document explains the results and methodologies they used. It presents the effects of the April 2 tariff announcement separately from any earlier tariffs imposed in 2025 and then combines them.
Some of the key findings are as follows:
- 1. Tariffs are a regressive tax, especially in the short-run. This means that tariffs burden households at the bottom of the income ladder more than those at the top as a share of income.
- 2. The April 2nd action is the equivalent of a rise in the effective US tariff rate of 11 ½ percentage points. The average effective US tariff rate after incorporating all 2025 tariffs is now 22 ½%, the highest since 1909.
- 3. The price level from all 2025 tariffs rises by 2.3% in the short-run, the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $3,800 in 2024 dollars. Annual losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $1,700.
- 4. The price level from the April 2nd announcement alone rises by 1.3% in the short run, the equivalent of an average per household consumer loss of $2,100 in 2024 dollars. Annual losses for households at the bottom of the income distribution are $980 under the April 2nd policy alone.
- 5. Both the April 2nd tariffs themselves and all 2025 actions to date have disproportionately affected clothing and textiles. Apparel prices rise 8% from the April 2nd action alone and 17% from all US tariffs.
- 6. Food prices are also disproportionately affected, rising 1.6% from the April 2nd policy and 2.8% from all 2025 tariff actions. Fresh produce rises 2.2% and 4.0%, respectively.
- 7. Motor vehicle prices are largely untouched by the April 2nd announcement but rise by 8.4% under all tariff action to date, the equivalent of an additional $4,000 to the price of an average 2024 new car.
Another legitimate source, the Tax Foundation, has reported that a 10 percent tariff would increase taxes on US households by $1,253 on average, and a 20 percent tariff would increase taxes on US households by $2,045 on average (https://taxfoundation.org/blog/trump-tariffs-revenue-estimates/).
Our Representative, Steven Horsford, also made similar points in a recent press release. He said,
“A tariff is a tax – Donald Trump owns these taxes; he owns the harm they’re inflicting; he owns the financial instability he’s sowing for Nevadans and people across the country. Trump campaigned on lowering costs for Nevadans and people across the country – instead, he’s intentionally making everyday goods more expensive. That’s wrong.”
He then went on to say, “No president in American history has taxed the American people this much, this fast, and this recklessly.”